Syed Muhammad Yaseen
For decades, becoming a doctor in Pakistan has been viewed as one of the most prestigious and desirable career choices. Thousands of students and families have traditionally spent years preparing for the MDCAT, often treating admission to an MBBS programme as the ultimate measure of academic success.
The MDCAT picture appears to be changing.
Official figures indicate a noticeable contraction in the MDCAT candidate and registration pool. In 2022, 204,253 candidates appeared in the MDCAT, followed by 180,534 in 2023. In 2024, PM&DC reported 167,772 registrations, while the number fell to 140,071 registrations in 2025.
These figures require an important qualification. The 2022 and 2023 figures refer to candidates who appeared in the examination, whereas the 2024 and 2025 figures refer to registrations. Therefore, they should not be treated as a perfectly comparable year-by-year series.
The clearest recent comparison is between 2024 and 2025. Registrations declined by 27,701, or approximately 16.5 percent.
The early picture for 2026 also deserves attention, but with caution. According to a National Assembly briefing on July 10, approximately 135,000 students had registered for MDCAT 2026 at that point. However, registration was restarted for some days as it got delayed till 20 September. It should therefore not be presented as a confirmed 2026 decline.
The more interesting question is not simply whether MDCAT numbers are falling. It is why?
One obvious factor is the rising cost of medical education. For students unable to secure public-sector seats, private medical colleges can represent a major financial commitment. Families are increasingly evaluating medicine not only through the lens of prestige, but also through affordability, career progression and financial return.
At the same time, students today have far more career options. Technology, artificial intelligence, software development, business, finance and other professional fields have become increasingly attractive. It would be premature, however, to claim that these sectors are directly responsible for the MDCAT decline without comprehensive national research.
Another concern is the uncertainty surrounding the medical education pathway itself. Students face a long journey from MDCAT preparation to MBBS, house job, postgraduate training and eventual specialization. Limited postgraduate opportunities, demanding working conditions and uncertainty about career progression can influence how families assess the profession.
The emergence of vacant seats in some private medical colleges is particularly significant. Reports of unfilled MBBS seats in provinces such as Sindh and Punjab suggest that the traditional situation—where demand overwhelmingly exceeded available seats—is changing in parts of the private sector.
But vacant seats should not automatically be interpreted as evidence that students no longer want to become doctors. High tuition fees, admission rules, students declining offers and other factors can also contribute. In fact, a court record from Sindh highlighted the role of expensive private-college fees in difficulties filling certain seats.
This distinction is important because the solution should not simply be to lower admission standards whenever seats remain vacant.
Pakistan certainly needs doctors. Large parts of the country continue to face healthcare shortages, particularly outside major urban centres. But increasing the number of medical graduates alone cannot solve these problems.
The country needs a medical education system that offers quality training, adequate clinical exposure, affordable education, transparent admissions and a credible postgraduate career pathway.
Policymakers should therefore investigate the reasons behind the changing MDCAT trend through a nationwide study of applicants and eligible students. How many reject private medical seats because of fees? How many choose foreign universities? How many switch to other professions? How many are discouraged by postgraduate uncertainty?
Until these questions are properly answered, conclusions about a “collapse” of medical education demand would be premature.
The falling MDCAT numbers should instead be viewed as a warning signal. Pakistan may not be losing interest in medicine; rather, students may be becoming more selective about the price they are willing to pay for a medical career.
The answer is not to force more students into MBBS. It is to make medicine a profession that students choose because it offers quality education, professional dignity, financial sustainability and a clear future.
Pakistan does not simply need more doctors. It needs a medical education system that future doctors can believe in.
